W
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
4%
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
6%
ai2 sources$972K3pp gap
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
2%
ai2 sources$880K1pp gap
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
49%
↑ 5ppPolymarket
68%
Manifold
31%
ai2 sources$620K37pp gap
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
64%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
65%
Manifold
64%
ai2 sources$594K1pp gap
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
7%
— 0ppPolymarket
10%
Manifold
5%
ai2 sources$586K4pp gap
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
30%
↓ 2ppManifold
26%
Polymarket
34%
ai2 sources$421K9pp gap
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
22%
Polymarket
20%
Manifold
24%
ai2 sources$327K4pp gap
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
1%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$269K0pp gap
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
8%
↓ 4ppPolymarket
10%
Manifold
7%
ai2 sources$135K2pp gap
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$132K0pp gap
0Mfwnsn1Xberracegm8J
EVENT
OpenAI
67%
OpenAI
61%
OpenAI
58%
ai6 candidates +3 more
0
0Oqis0Gngi
EVENT
OpenAI 2026 peak valuation —
74%
OpenAI 2026 peak valuation —
7%
OpenAI 2026 peak valuation —
6%
ai10 candidates +7 more
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EVENT
💰If the first $10 Trillion d
39%
💰If the first $10 Trillion d
17%
💰If the first $10 Trillion d
16%
ai2 candidates
0
0Uy608L80C
EVENT
astral.sh acquisition market
88%
astral.sh acquisition market
86%
astral.sh acquisition market
81%
ai6 candidates +3 more
1
1Es6Bca3Sdaqblbkshu4
EVENT
By when will LLM chess bots
17%
By when will LLM chess bots
17%
By when will LLM chess bots
17%
ai8 candidates +5 more
2
209P5Un0Sq
EVENT
Which company has the best L
32%
Which company has the best L
30%
Which company has the best L
16%
ai12 candidates +9 more
2Rrspurqiu
EVENT
🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD O
89%
🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD O
85%
🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD O
84%
ai4 candidates +1 more
3Ghz09Ueq9Fi8Ootsapf
EVENT
A company from which contine
79%
A company from which contine
14%
A company from which contine
6%
ai4 candidates +1 more
5
5Zd6Q20Oel
EVENT
AI Progress Trajectory from
33%
AI Progress Trajectory from
32%
AI Progress Trajectory from
24%
ai2 candidates
6
6Oq8Dceolc
EVENT
Which Companies will top Cha
82%
Which Companies will top Cha
70%
Which Companies will top Cha
64%
ai3 candidates