E
Etlytcqp9Y
Other
52%
1T - 1.1T
8%
900B - 1T
6%
ai10 candidates +7 more
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Google
32%
OpenAI
26%
Anthropic
25%
ai7 candidates +4 more
Exefffg5Qylk06Glmgzc
Smaller model size (hence, a
82%
More/better hardware allocat
74%
Something related to low-lev
43%
ai5 candidates +2 more
F
F9Leqee1Rlxlkmzk6Opb
Q3-Q4 2024
89%
2025
6%
Q1-Q2 2024
2%
ai7 candidates +4 more
G
Gdylagcu9A
Claude
77%
ChatGPT
56%
Gemini
55%
ai6 candidates +3 more
G
Gece573T0Lhezy5Lain9
Nvidia
16%
Alphabet
14%
Microsoft
13%
ai2 candidates
G
Giazvgn2Udtbqkkjiygp
>= 8x optical zoom
80%
>= 12 GB RAM
80%
a Thunderbolt 4 or USB4 port
76%
ai2 candidates
H
H5Ch2Prl9R
DeepSeek V4
84%
GPT-5.5
71%
Meta Avocado
50%
ai8 candidates +5 more
H
Hco6Upaund
>=$40B
94%
>=$50B
86%
>=$60B
76%
ai5 candidates +2 more
H
Higg9Rspd9
Run ends/is reset because ne
81%
New sonnet/opus model is rel
67%
New haiku model is released
41%
ai31 candidates +28 more
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Anthropic
29%
Google
18%
OpenAI
16%
ai13 candidates +10 more
0
0Gswu1Qy80Sk1Uogwukr
J. Something 'just works' o
16%
Something wonderful happens
13%
O. Early applications of AI
11%
ai8 candidates +5 more
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 10-20%
10%
Manifold
10%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 20-30%
16%
Manifold
16%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 30-40%
20%
Manifold
20%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 50-60%
12%
Manifold
12%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 60-70%
7%
Manifold
7%
aiManifold17 traders
W
will Anthropic have another leak in April 2026?
46%
Manifold
46%
aiManifold13 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2027
39%
Manifold
39%
aiManifold16 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2028
57%
Manifold
57%
aiManifold16 traders