S
Superintelligence Stock [Permanent]
58%
Manifold
58%
aiManifold18 traders
W
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
17%
Manifold
17%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
78%
Manifold
78%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
52%
Manifold
52%
aiManifold16 traders
O
OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?
10%
Manifold
10%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?
13%
Manifold
13%
aiManifold17 traders
G
GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date — Before June 2026
79%
Manifold
79%
aiManifold49 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2035?
54%
Manifold
54%
aiManifold116 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before July 2026
20%
Manifold
20%
aiManifold119 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before August 2026
30%
Manifold
30%
aiManifold119 traders
W
Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?
11%
Manifold
11%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — <10%
6%
Manifold
6%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 10-20%
10%
Manifold
10%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 20-30%
16%
Manifold
16%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 30-40%
20%
Manifold
20%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 50-60%
12%
Manifold
12%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 60-70%
7%
Manifold
7%
aiManifold17 traders
Will any emoji be printed on a Magic: the Gathering card by... — End of 2030
41%
Manifold
41%
aiManifold19 traders
O
OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026
93%
Manifold
93%
aiManifold15 traders
W
Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?
16%
Manifold
16%
aiManifold15 traders