FED Decisions Jan Apr
EVENT
Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the
98%
Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the n
1%
Fed decide differently in th
1%
economics3 candidates $426K+$19K/24h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
economicsPolymarket$406K
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$378K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
5%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
5%
economicsPolymarket$316K
Bank Of England Decision In April
EVENT
No change in Bank of England
95%
Bank of England increases in
5%
Bank of England decreases in
0%
economics3 candidates $312K+$14K/24h
China GDP Growth In Q1 2026
EVENT
China GDP growth in Q1 2026
72%
China GDP growth in Q1 2026
24%
China GDP growth in Q1 2026
5%
economics7 candidates +4 more$260K+$4K/24h
Ecb Interest Rates April 2026
EVENT
ECB announce no change at th
87%
ECB announce an increase at
13%
economics2 candidates $229K+$5K/24h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$204K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
52%
↓ 8ppPolymarket
52%
economicsPolymarket$166K
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
11%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
11%
economicsPolymarket$157K
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
4%
economics2 sources$142K4pp gap
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
economicsPolymarket$126K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$119K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$118K
Major Rate Cut Chances Under Each FED Chair
EVENT
Kevin Warsh
74%
Kevin Warsh
13%
Rick Rieder
7%
economics9 candidates +6 more$108K+$7/24h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$106K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$106K
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
13%
↓ 7ppPolymarket
13%
economicsPolymarket$90K
ECB rate hike in 2026?
75%
↑ 8ppPolymarket
75%
economicsPolymarket$89K
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
92%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
95%
Manifold
89%
economics2 sources$89K6pp gap