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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
67,809
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 22 min ago
141 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
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PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
W
What prices will the S&P 500 hit before it hits 6,000 again? — 12,000
12%
Manifold
12%
financeManifold27 traders
W
What prices will the S&P 500 hit before it hits 6,000 again? — 100,000
7%
Manifold
7%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6500
62%
Manifold
62%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 7000
43%
Manifold
43%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 7500
28%
Manifold
28%
financeManifold27 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >24.5 at end of 2026/04
13%
Manifold
13%
financeManifold41 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of April 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6700
67%
Manifold
67%
financeManifold16 traders
W
Will OpenSea join the S&P 500?
12%
Manifold
12%
financeManifold13 traders
W
Will OpenSea join the S&P 500?
13%
Manifold
13%
financeManifold12 traders
W
What day of the week will be the next >=5% change in the S&P 500? (After April 9 2025) — Monday
31%
Manifold
31%
financeManifold12 traders
W
What day of the week will be the next >=5% change in the S&P 500? (After April 9 2025) — Wednesday
20%
Manifold
20%
financeManifold12 traders
W
What day of the week will be the next >=5% change in the S&P 500? (After April 9 2025) — Thursday
17%
Manifold
17%
financeManifold12 traders
W
What day of the week will be the next >=5% change in the S&P 500? (After April 9 2025) — Friday
17%
Manifold
17%
financeManifold12 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2027?
71%
Manifold
71%
financeManifold11 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of April 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6100
95%
Manifold
95%
financeManifold16 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of April 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6300
94%
Manifold
94%
financeManifold16 traders
W
What prices will the S&P 500 hit before it hits 6,000 again? — 8,000
34%
Manifold
34%
financeManifold27 traders
W
What prices will the S&P 500 hit before it hits 6,000 again? — 10,000
15%
Manifold
15%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6000
79%
Manifold
79%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of April 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6900
38%
Manifold
38%
financeManifold16 traders
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