OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated.

1,056
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
249,165
Markets
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
149 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 10,000
2%
Manifold
2%
financeManifold17 traders
A
AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions
29%
Manifold
29%
financeManifold23 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?
62%
Manifold
62%
financeManifold28 traders
W
Will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?
20%
Manifold
20%
financeManifold24 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >29.5 at end of 2026/08
31%
Manifold
31%
financeManifold60 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >25.5 at end of 2026/08
93%
Manifold
93%
financeManifold60 traders
M
Manifold markets next valuation > $20m if announced by EOY 2026?
55%
Manifold
55%
financeManifold11 traders
I
In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?
19%
Manifold
19%
financeManifold96 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6500
92%
Manifold
92%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
financeManifold71 traders
W
Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
financeManifold55 traders
W
Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Nvidia?
39%
Manifold
39%
financeManifold35 traders
W
Will Extropic AI ever have more than 100m revenue in a year through mid 2029?
10%
Manifold
10%
financeManifold16 traders
W
What prices will the S&P 500 hit before it hits 6,000 again? — 10,000
25%
Manifold
25%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?
23%
Manifold
23%
financeManifold15 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 8,000
70%
Manifold
70%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 12,000
1%
Manifold
1%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?
17%
Manifold
17%
financeManifold18 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 7500
62%
Manifold
62%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will S&P 500 increase in 2026?
94%
Manifold
94%
financeManifold96 traders
34567
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