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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated.

1,056
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
249,165
Markets
Data refreshed 3 hr ago
149 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will the S&P 500 (Daily, Close) reach above 8000 at any point in 2026?
72%
Manifold
72%
financeManifold19 traders
W
Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?
94%
Manifold
94%
financeManifold21 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >26.5 at end of 2026/08
88%
Manifold
88%
financeManifold60 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >27.5 at end of 2026/08
76%
Manifold
76%
financeManifold60 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >28.5 at end of 2026/08
62%
Manifold
62%
financeManifold60 traders
W
Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?
70%
Manifold
70%
financeManifold21 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 15,000
1%
Manifold
1%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 10,000
2%
Manifold
2%
financeManifold17 traders
A
AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions
29%
Manifold
29%
financeManifold23 traders
W
Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?
15%
Manifold
15%
financeManifold33 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >24.5 at end of 2026/08
97%
Manifold
97%
financeManifold60 traders
B
By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
20%
Manifold
20%
financeManifold83 traders
📈
📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?
90%
Manifold
90%
financeManifold15 traders
W
Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?
40%
Manifold
40%
financeManifold22 traders
B
By the end of 2027 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
70%
Manifold
70%
financeManifold53 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 dip below 6000 in 2026?
11%
Manifold
11%
financeManifold52 traders
W
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
2%
Manifold
2%
financeManifold46 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 close up or down by more than 5% in a day in 2026?
31%
Manifold
31%
financeManifold15 traders
W
Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?
6%
Manifold
6%
financeManifold29 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 8000
38%
Manifold
38%
financeManifold27 traders
←45678→
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