Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
94%
politics2 sources$800K94pp gap
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$795K0pp gap
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$759K2pp gap
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
26%
↓ 0ppManifold
61%
Polymarket
18%
other2 sources$707K44pp gap
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$704K0pp gap
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
other2 sources$665K1pp gap
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?
68%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
37%
Manifold
99%
other2 sources$566K62pp gap
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
politics2 sources$528K0pp gap
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
0%
other2 sources$485K0pp gap
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
0%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$481K0pp gap
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
6%
Manifold
2%
other2 sources$464K4pp gap
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
85%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
82%
Manifold
91%
ai2 sources$460K9pp gap
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
0%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$396K0pp gap
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
7%
Polymarket
8%
Manifold
5%
other2 sources$155K3pp gap
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
8%
sports2 sources$125K4pp gap
Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?
0%
↓ 6ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$101K0pp gap
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?
0%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$56K0pp gap
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?
2%
↓ 4ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
8%
sports2 sources$42K7pp gap
Which world leaders will leave office in 2026? — Vladimir Putin
7%
Gemini
8%
Manifold
5%
politics2 sources$38K2pp gap
Which world leaders will leave office in 2026? — Volodymyr Zelenskyy
3%
Gemini
10%
Manifold
0%
politics2 sources$38K9pp gap