Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
13%
Manifold
8%
Polymarket
14%
other2 sources$28.9M6pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25%
Polymarket
28%
Manifold
18%
geopolitics2 sources$28.1M9pp gap
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
9%
↓ 2ppGemini
3%
Manifold
4%
Polymarket
14%
politics3 sources$10.1M12pp gap
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
16%
Polymarket
18%
Manifold
10%
other2 sources$7.9M8pp gap
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
12%
↑ 1ppManifold
13%
Polymarket
12%
other2 sources$4.3M1pp gap
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
34%
Predictit
24%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
35%
politics3 sources$3.3M12pp gap
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
6%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Manifold
9%
other2 sources$1.9M5pp gap
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
64%
— 0ppPolymarket
64%
Manifold
65%
geopolitics2 sources$1.9M1pp gap
Human moon landing in 2026?
2%
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$1.9M2pp gap
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
51%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
60%
Manifold
28%
other2 sources$1.7M32pp gap
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
33%
↑ 2ppManifold
1%
Polymarket
65%
politics2 sources$1.7M64pp gap
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
other2 sources$1.7M1pp gap
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
35%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
22%
Manifold
77%
other2 sources$1.6M55pp gap
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
8%
— 0ppPolymarket
8%
Manifold
7%
other2 sources$1.2M1pp gap
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
0%
— 0ppManifold
16%
Polymarket
0%
other2 sources$1.2M16pp gap
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
25%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
25%
Manifold
25%
other2 sources$1.2M0pp gap
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
8%
Polymarket
8%
Manifold
10%
other2 sources$1.1M3pp gap
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
14%
Polymarket
14%
Manifold
17%
other2 sources$966K4pp gap
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
100%
↑ 75ppManifold
99%
Polymarket
100%
other2 sources$800K1pp gap
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
17%
politics2 sources$800K17pp gap