Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
14%
Polymarket
18%
Manifold
10%
politics2 sources$22.5M9pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$21.6M0pp gap
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9%
— 0ppManifold
9%
Polymarket
9%
other2 sources$19.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.3M1pp gap
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
17%
— 0ppPolymarket
16%
Gemini
19%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$14.1M4pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
97%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.1M0pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$11.2M2pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$11.0M2pp gap
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
10%
↓ 2ppGemini
13%
Manifold
5%
Polymarket
16%
other3 sources$9.4M12pp gap
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
2%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
3%
sports2 sources$9.0M2pp gap
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
42%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
40%
Gemini
45%
Manifold
40%
sports3 sources$6.3M5pp gap
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
9%
Manifold
7%
Polymarket
10%
other2 sources$3.6M4pp gap
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
36%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
36%
Manifold
35%
politics2 sources$2.9M2pp gap
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
20%
↓ 5ppPolymarket
26%
Gemini
15%
other2 sources$2.7M12pp gap
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
sports2 sources$1.4M2pp gap
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
9%
— 0ppManifold
20%
Polymarket
4%
other2 sources$1.0M17pp gap
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
9%
↓ 2ppManifold
8%
Polymarket
9%
other2 sources$1.0M1pp gap
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
6%
↑ 2ppManifold
2%
Polymarket
17%
politics2 sources$960K15pp gap
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
7%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$954K5pp gap