GPT-6 released in 2026?
72%
Manifold
77%
Gemini
70%
other2 sources$35K7pp gap
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Manifold
20%
sports2 sources$15K17pp gap
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
3%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
6%
sports2 sources$15K4pp gap
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
33%
↑ 6ppPolymarket
32%
Manifold
35%
sports2 sources$10K3pp gap
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?
13%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
46%
Manifold
0%
sports2 sources$8K46pp gap
World Chess Championship Winner — Javokhir Sindarov
14%
Manifold
14%
other1 sources0pp gap
World Chess Championship Winner — Gukesh Dommaraju
32%
Manifold
32%
other1 sources0pp gap
Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship? — Anish Giri
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
9%
other2 sources9pp gap