Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?
0%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$56K0pp gap
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
2%
entertainment2 sources$47K2pp gap
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
2%
other2 sources$45K0pp gap
Theo James announced as next James Bond?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
entertainment2 sources$40K1pp gap
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
6%
↓ 4ppPolymarket
13%
Manifold
1%
other2 sources$32K12pp gap
Which world leaders will leave office in 2026? — Vladimir Putin
98%
Manifold
94%
Gemini
99%
other2 sources$24K5pp gap
Which world leaders will leave office in 2026? — Volodymyr Zelenskyy
82%
Gemini
99%
Manifold
3%
politics2 sources$24K96pp gap
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
52%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
53%
Manifold
51%
politics2 sources$20K2pp gap
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
53%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
52%
Manifold
55%
other2 sources$19K2pp gap
Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup — St. Louis Blues
1%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$12K2pp gap
Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup — Seattle Kraken
1%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$12K2pp gap
Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup — San Jose Sharks
1%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$11K2pp gap
Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup — New York Islanders
1%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$11K2pp gap
Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup — Nashville Predators
1%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$11K2pp gap
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?
45%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
46%
Manifold
43%
sports2 sources$8K3pp gap
GPT-6 released in 2026?
82%
Manifold
68%
Gemini
88%
other2 sources$5K20pp gap
World Chess Championship Winner — Javokhir Sindarov
13%
Manifold
13%
other1 sources0pp gap
World Chess Championship Winner — Gukesh Dommaraju
38%
Manifold
38%
other1 sources0pp gap
Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship? — Anish Giri
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
9%
other2 sources9pp gap
Who will win the 2026 NBA Championship? — New Orleans Pelicans
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
3%
sports2 sources3pp gap