Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$24.9M0pp gap
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
14%
Polymarket
18%
Manifold
10%
politics2 sources$22.6M9pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.4M0pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.3M0pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
98%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.9M0pp gap
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
16%
— 0ppPolymarket
15%
Gemini
18%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$14.4M3pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$11.2M2pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$11.0M2pp gap
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
2%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
1%
Gemini
4%
sports2 sources$9.0M3pp gap
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
42%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
42%
Gemini
45%
Manifold
40%
sports3 sources$6.3M5pp gap
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
36%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
35%
politics2 sources$2.9M2pp gap
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
21%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
28%
Gemini
15%
other2 sources$2.8M13pp gap
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
2%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
3%
sports2 sources$1.4M2pp gap
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
9%
— 0ppManifold
20%
Polymarket
4%
other2 sources$1.0M16pp gap
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference?
4%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
8%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$955K6pp gap
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
22%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
20%
Gemini
25%
sports2 sources$817K5pp gap
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$777K1pp gap
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Gemini
6%
sports2 sources$765K3pp gap
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
41%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
39%
Gemini
43%
sports2 sources$757K4pp gap
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
1%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
1%
finance2 sources$701K0pp gap