Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
14%
Polymarket
18%
Manifold
10%
politics2 sources$22.5M9pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$21.6M0pp gap
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9%
— 0ppManifold
9%
Polymarket
9%
other2 sources$19.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.3M1pp gap
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
17%
— 0ppPolymarket
16%
Gemini
19%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$14.1M4pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
97%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.1M0pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$11.2M2pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$11.0M2pp gap
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
10%
↓ 2ppGemini
13%
Manifold
5%
Polymarket
16%
other3 sources$9.4M12pp gap
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
2%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
3%
sports2 sources$9.0M2pp gap
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
8%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
8%
otherPolymarket$8.0M
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
42%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
40%
Gemini
45%
Manifold
40%
sports3 sources$6.3M5pp gap
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
8%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
8%
otherPolymarket$5.3M
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
2%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
2%
otherPolymarket$5.0M
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
9%
Manifold
7%
Polymarket
10%
other2 sources$3.6M4pp gap
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
otherPolymarket$3.1M
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
36%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
36%
Manifold
35%
politics2 sources$2.9M2pp gap
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
20%
↓ 5ppPolymarket
26%
Gemini
15%
other2 sources$2.7M12pp gap
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
otherPolymarket$1.9M