Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$24.9M0pp gap
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
11%
Polymarket
18%
Manifold
7%
politics2 sources$22.6M12pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.4M0pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.3M0pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
98%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.9M1pp gap
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
16%
— 0ppPolymarket
15%
Gemini
19%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$14.4M4pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$11.2M2pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$11.0M2pp gap
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
2%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
sports2 sources$9.0M2pp gap
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
8%
— 0ppPolymarket
8%
otherPolymarket$8.0M
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
42%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
42%
Gemini
45%
Manifold
40%
sports3 sources$6.3M5pp gap
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
8%
Polymarket
8%
otherPolymarket$5.4M
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
otherPolymarket$5.3M
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
otherPolymarket$3.1M
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
34%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
32%
politics2 sources$2.9M4pp gap
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
20%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
26%
Gemini
15%
other2 sources$2.8M12pp gap
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
5%
Polymarket
5%
otherPolymarket$1.9M
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
otherPolymarket$1.8M
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
3%
sports2 sources$1.4M1pp gap
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
9%
— 0ppPolymarket
9%
otherPolymarket$1.1M