W
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
39%
Manifold
39%
scienceManifold15 traders
W
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?
30%
Manifold
30%
scienceManifold15 traders
W
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
51%
Manifold
51%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will a child of Elon Musk be CEO of Tesla, X, xAI, or SpaceX by the end of 2035?
21%
Manifold
21%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2030?
57%
Manifold
57%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
60%
Manifold
60%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?
14%
Manifold
14%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
69%
Manifold
69%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
10%
Manifold
10%
scienceManifold155 traders
S
Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Moon orbit by 2035
63%
Manifold
63%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
will 2026 bring a offical breakthrough in the Kurt Cobain death investigation?
12%
Manifold
12%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2027?
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will global carbon dioxide levels decrease in any year before 2030
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
56%
Manifold
56%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times?
97%
Manifold
97%
scienceManifold12 traders
S
Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045
59%
Manifold
59%
scienceManifold19 traders
W
Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?
40%
Manifold
40%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will SpaceX combine with Tesla in 2026?
21%
Manifold
21%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
2%
Manifold
2%
scienceManifold11 traders
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 14
25%
Manifold
25%
scienceManifold95 traders