Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
12%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
12%
geopoliticsPolymarket$5.3M
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$5.1M4pp gap
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
2%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
2%
otherPolymarket$5.0M
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$4.9M4pp gap
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$4.4M4pp gap
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44%
↓ 1ppGemini
42%
Manifold
50%
Polymarket
40%
politics3 sources$4.4M10pp gap
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
3%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$4.2M2pp gap
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
44%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
44%
politicsPolymarket$4.1M
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
36%
↑ 1ppGemini
40%
Manifold
30%
Polymarket
38%
politics3 sources$3.9M10pp gap
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
geopoliticsPolymarket$3.9M
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6%
— 0ppPolymarket
7%
Gemini
9%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.9M5pp gap
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
12%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
12%
politicsPolymarket$3.4M
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
56%
↓ 1ppManifold
38%
Gemini
85%
Polymarket
36%
politics3 sources$3.1M48pp gap
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
otherPolymarket$3.1M
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
4%
sports3 sources$3.0M4pp gap
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
8%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.9M
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
74%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
74%
sportsPolymarket$2.9M
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
70%
↑ 10ppPolymarket
70%
sportsPolymarket$2.9M
Iran leadership change by April 30?
12%
Polymarket
12%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.7M
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
32%
— 0ppPolymarket
30%
Gemini
37%
Manifold
30%
sports3 sources$2.6M7pp gap