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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated.

1,068
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
177,121
Markets
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
161 questions
Consensus 2+
E
Ehouzu6Ead
≥$1T
90%
≥$1.2T
80%
≥$1.5T
71%
ai7 candidates +4 more
E
Enopspn6E9
Religious involvement
82%
Quitting social media
73%
Getting a pet
72%
ai10 candidates +7 more
E
Erisrzc2Rc
Nvidia
21%
Alphabet
18%
Apple
11%
ai2 candidates
C
Cnd0Scues9
≥$1T
87%
≥$1.25T
76%
≥$1.5T
60%
ai8 candidates +5 more
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before March 2027
82%
Manifold
82%
aiManifold119 traders
I
If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?
72%
Manifold
72%
aiManifold97 traders
O
OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date — Before December 2026
55%
Manifold
55%
aiManifold20 traders
O
OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date — Before October 2026
46%
Manifold
46%
aiManifold20 traders
W
Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?
42%
Manifold
42%
aiManifold11 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 60-70%
4%
Manifold
4%
aiManifold17 traders
A
An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026
13%
Manifold
13%
aiManifold24 traders
W
Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
81%
Manifold
81%
aiManifold72 traders
G
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date — Before February 2027
94%
Manifold
94%
aiManifold26 traders
W
Will ChatGPT Plus users have unavoidable ads before the end of 2026?
8%
Manifold
8%
aiManifold20 traders
W
Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?
19%
Manifold
19%
aiManifold15 traders
O
OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date — Before July 2026
4%
Manifold
4%
aiManifold20 traders
W
Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?
83%
Manifold
83%
aiManifold85 traders
W
Will OpenAI go public in 2026?
77%
Manifold
77%
aiManifold19 traders
W
Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?
63%
Manifold
63%
aiManifold28 traders
W
Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?
13%
Manifold
13%
aiManifold12 traders
←6789→
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