W
Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?
13%
Manifold
13%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will Anthropic lose any of its cofounders by the end of 2026?
17%
Manifold
17%
aiManifold13 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2048?
85%
Manifold
85%
aiManifold84 traders
W
Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... — June 31st 2028 or earlier?
23%
Manifold
23%
aiManifold30 traders
G
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date — Before February 2027
92%
Manifold
92%
aiManifold26 traders
W
Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?
98%
Manifold
98%
aiManifold27 traders
W
will magic be real before i die
21%
Manifold
21%
aiManifold17 traders
B
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
10%
Manifold
10%
aiManifold827 traders
W
Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... — Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?
33%
Manifold
33%
aiManifold30 traders
A
AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
16%
Manifold
16%
aiManifold16 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2032?
51%
Manifold
51%
aiManifold214 traders
W
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
20%
Manifold
20%
aiManifold27 traders
W
Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM — August 2026
87%
Manifold
87%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will OpenAI shares pay a dividend before AGI or by 2031?
9%
Manifold
9%
aiManifold25 traders
Will any emoji be printed on a Magic: the Gathering card by... — End of 2025
1%
Manifold
1%
aiManifold19 traders
W
Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?
99%
Manifold
99%
aiManifold22 traders
W
Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?
35%
Manifold
35%
aiManifold11 traders
O
OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?
6%
Manifold
6%
aiManifold38 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 50-60%
3%
Manifold
3%
aiManifold17 traders
F
Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?
96%
Manifold
96%
aiManifold19 traders