C
Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok) — ≥$200/Mtok
12%
Manifold
12%
aiManifold28 traders
C
Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok) — ≥$150/Mtok
17%
Manifold
17%
aiManifold28 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — January 2029 or earlier
64%
Manifold
64%
aiManifold16 traders
C
Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok) — ≥$100/Mtok
89%
Manifold
89%
aiManifold28 traders
W
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
67%
Manifold
67%
aiManifold85 traders
V4 (DeepSeek) release date — Before June 2026
93%
Manifold
93%
aiManifold98 traders
W
Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?
36%
Manifold
36%
aiManifold38 traders
In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed? — 2027-2029
49%
Manifold
49%
aiManifold38 traders
In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed? — 2025-2026
37%
Manifold
37%
aiManifold38 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before December 2027
92%
Manifold
92%
aiManifold119 traders
C
Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date — Before 2026-09-01
52%
Manifold
52%
aiManifold310 traders
I
I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
19%
Manifold
19%
aiManifold74 traders
C
Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date — Before 2026-08-01
42%
Manifold
42%
aiManifold310 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before November 2027
90%
Manifold
90%
aiManifold119 traders
W
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?
16%
Manifold
16%
aiManifold39 traders
C
Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date — Before May 2026
3%
Manifold
3%
aiManifold44 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2037?
61%
Manifold
61%
aiManifold85 traders
C
Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date — Before 2026-06-01
34%
Manifold
34%
aiManifold310 traders
C
Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date — Before December 2026
68%
Manifold
68%
aiManifold44 traders
W
Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
66%
Manifold
66%
aiManifold72 traders