9
9Sque0Z80A
Active params >300B
25%
Active params >500B
21%
Active params >700B
9%
ai4 candidates +1 more
C
Cnd0Scues9
≥$1T
61%
≥$1.25T
55%
≥$1.5T
43%
ai8 candidates +5 more
C
Cospico8Nc
Other
92%
45B - 50B
5%
40B - 45B
0%
ai11 candidates +8 more
C
Czp52Czdql
NVIDIA
75%
Alphabet (Google)
12%
Apple
10%
ai2 candidates
W
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?
37%
Manifold
37%
aiManifold63 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2027?
3%
Manifold
3%
aiManifold305 traders
W
Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
59%
Manifold
59%
aiManifold23 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2031?
45%
Manifold
45%
aiManifold154 traders
W
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
43%
Manifold
43%
aiManifold78 traders
W
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
61%
Manifold
61%
aiManifold83 traders
G
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date — Before November 2026
74%
Manifold
74%
aiManifold26 traders
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? — 2028
60%
Manifold
60%
aiManifold35 traders
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? — 2027
35%
Manifold
35%
aiManifold35 traders
4
4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.
50%
Manifold
50%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — <10%
71%
Manifold
71%
aiManifold17 traders
7
7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
9%
Manifold
9%
aiManifold19 traders
W
Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?
31%
Manifold
31%
aiManifold38 traders
W
Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?
85%
Manifold
85%
aiManifold54 traders
W
Will at least 15% of US adults in 2030 have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms in their lifetimes?
70%
Manifold
70%
aiManifold16 traders
C
Claude Haiku dying in 3 months?
63%
Manifold
63%
aiManifold11 traders