2
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Created by a Manifold Partne
58%
AI related
54%
will be a MC market that all
50%
ai2 candidates
8
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Other
45%
2027
13%
2028
11%
ai8 candidates +5 more
8
8Eq6Zi9Opp
NVIDIA
95%
Apple
3%
Alphabet (Google)
0%
ai2 candidates
2
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Plus
3%
Pro
2%
Business
2%
ai4 candidates +1 more
9
90R98Sgter
Claude Code
73%
Codex CLI
9%
Other
4%
ai2 candidates
9
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November 2026
39%
October 2026
25%
December 2026
19%
ai8 candidates +5 more
9
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It will have a METR 50% of 2
28%
It uses a novel architecture
14%
ai2 candidates
A
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After 2035
69%
Only after superintelligence
49%
2031-2035
22%
ai6 candidates +3 more
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Nvidia
29%
Anthropic
23%
OpenAI
17%
ai2 candidates
8
80Lzuedpge
Anthropic
78%
Kraken
12%
Discord
12%
ai2 candidates
2
2G0Sd6Hch2
$200B - $350B
25%
$350B - $500B
20%
$500B - $700B
16%
ai7 candidates +4 more
6
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Viking Therapeutics
39%
GitLab
20%
Ubisoft
14%
ai2 candidates
6
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$6T–$7T
39%
$5T–$6T
34%
$4T–$5T
10%
ai7 candidates +4 more
2
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Anthropic
60%
OpenAI
16%
Moonshot AI
8%
ai12 candidates +9 more
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Gunplay
98%
Bond drives a car
97%
Bond will be a man
97%
ai2 candidates
C
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Other
96%
900B - 1T
3%
700B - 800B
0%
ai7 candidates +4 more
C
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Mark Rober
86%
Wendover Productions
64%
Veritasium
51%
ai6 candidates +3 more
C
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Other
93%
45B - 50B
5%
40B - 45B
1%
ai11 candidates +8 more
C
Cussr0Uull
Anthropic
52%
OpenAI
32%
Google DeepMind
8%
ai2 candidates
C
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NVIDIA
84%
Apple
11%
Alphabet (Google)
2%
ai2 candidates