Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
8%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
8%
aiPolymarket$2K
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
60%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
60%
aiPolymarket$2K
W
Will the FDA issue formal guidance or recommendations regarding AI chatbot mental health risks by June 1, 2026?
52%
Context
52%
aiContext$2K
W
Will Anthropic's DoD lawsuit be dismissed by April 10?
79%
Context
79%
aiContext$1K
9
9Oszszlhly
18h - 20h
27%
20h - 22h
21%
16h - 18h
15%
ai10 candidates +7 more
9
9Ll96Lgch5
It uses a novel architecture
14%
It will have a METR 50% of 2
9%
ai2 candidates
5Fsvwlsr1Z
Other
70%
Anthony Lewandowski
16%
Alex Krishevsky
11%
ai5 candidates +2 more
9
9E2Rzpczui
>=1B Weekly Active Users
63%
>=1B Monthly Active Users
35%
Neither before EOY 2026
2%
ai3 candidates
9
9Delliqzul
Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-s
33%
Earbuds
26%
Other
23%
ai7 candidates +4 more
5
5C2Clinpzu
OAI
72%
OPAI
17%
Other
11%
ai3 candidates
2
27Rw51Y4Vrrlscmxyxuq
Created by a Manifold Partne
58%
AI related
54%
will be a MC market that all
50%
ai2 candidates
9
9Cyesq9Ssq
≥$0.9T
61%
≥$1T
34%
≥$1.1T
23%
ai6 candidates +3 more
C
Cospico8Nc
Other
77%
40B - 45B
4%
35B - 40B
4%
ai11 candidates +8 more
9
90R98Sgter
Claude Code
77%
Codex CLI
9%
Pi
4%
ai2 candidates
C
Codqi90Y60
Veritasium
83%
Kurzgesagt
79%
Wendover Productions
64%
ai7 candidates +4 more
C
Cussr0Uull
Anthropic
54%
OpenAI
31%
Google DeepMind
9%
ai2 candidates
C
Czp52Czdql
NVIDIA
73%
Alphabet (Google)
12%
Apple
10%
ai2 candidates
D
D7Trl5Aru5Jumgsc2G2L
There was an alignment break
31%
Humanity coordinates to prev
30%
High intelligence isn't enou
13%
ai8 candidates +5 more
D
Dqc0Zpdne8
1.5T+
98%
2T+
43%
2.5T+
22%
ai8 candidates +5 more
E4Ekhsg3Vcrjvd71I5Sl
Other
63%
Grimes
10%
Richard Dawkins
6%
ai21 candidates +18 more