W
Will the UK face the "longest recession in G7"?
15%
Manifold
15%
economicsManifold14 traders
W
Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040?
55%
Manifold
55%
economicsManifold28 traders
W
Will the US debt-to-GDP ratio rise between 2023 and 2030
82%
Manifold
82%
economicsManifold15 traders
B
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
34%
Manifold
34%
economicsManifold597 traders
W
Will US real GDP in Q1 2030 be at least 50% greater than in Q1 2025?
44%
Manifold
44%
economicsManifold11 traders
W
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
30%
Manifold
30%
economicsManifold22 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
10%
Manifold
10%
economicsManifold28 traders
W
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 10 years?
22%
Manifold
22%
economicsManifold25 traders
W
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?
40%
Manifold
40%
economicsManifold22 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
economicsManifold47 traders
Fed rate hike in 2026?
46%
Manifold
46%
economicsManifold21 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2024
0%
Manifold
0%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2025
2%
Manifold
2%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
20%
Manifold
20%
economicsManifold15 traders
W
Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035?
33%
Manifold
33%
economicsManifold14 traders
W
Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?
10%
Manifold
10%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
14%
Manifold
14%
economicsManifold52 traders
W
Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
20%
Manifold
20%
economicsManifold12 traders
W
Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold64 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
9%
Manifold
9%
economicsManifold17 traders