What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back? — Resolves No at end of 2026
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold31 traders
🇺
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
18%
Manifold
18%
economicsManifold12 traders
W
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
economicsManifold19 traders
U
US recession in 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
economicsManifold35 traders
W
Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
economicsManifold13 traders
What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back? — Resolves No at end of 2027
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold31 traders
W
Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
21%
Manifold
21%
economicsManifold15 traders
U
US recession in 2026?
6%
Manifold
6%
economicsManifold97 traders
W
Will the World's GDP double in 10 years?
55%
Manifold
55%
economicsManifold34 traders
U
Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?
39%
Manifold
39%
economicsManifold25 traders
W
Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029?
27%
Manifold
27%
economicsManifold36 traders
W
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold168 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2025
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
97%
Manifold
97%
economicsManifold68 traders
W
World GDP grows by an order of magnitude in 10 years?
10%
Manifold
10%
economicsManifold19 traders
W
Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
15%
Manifold
15%
economicsManifold52 traders
W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
61%
Manifold
61%
economicsManifold19 traders
W
Will the UK be the best performing country by GDP growth in Europe in 2028
6%
Manifold
6%
economicsManifold33 traders
What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back? — Resolves No at end of 2030
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold31 traders
W
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 15 years?
70%
Manifold
70%
economicsManifold42 traders