N
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A movie grosses at least $10
92%
SpaceX conducts an orbital S
78%
Google publicly releases a n
60%
entertainment3 candidates
O
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One Piece
91%
Shovel Knight
50%
Roblox
50%
entertainment2 candidates
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S&box fully released (Facepu
98%
xkcd is still producing new
92%
Mr Beast has 500M or more su
91%
entertainment5 candidates +2 more
O
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Yes, it will be Certified Fr
38%
No, but it will Non-Certifie
36%
No, it will be Rotten (Less
23%
entertainment4 candidates +1 more
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A millionaire
92%
A popular social media influ
81%
A reality TV star
81%
entertainment2 candidates
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Task 2 will be achieved (und
92%
Task 6 will be achieved (wri
90%
Task 1 will be achieved (und
83%
entertainment2 candidates
P
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2030 or after
60%
2027
13%
2028
13%
entertainment5 candidates +2 more
P
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No acquisition by end of 202
87%
Amazon
4%
Apple
3%
entertainment2 candidates
R
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Second half 2028
41%
First half 2028
37%
Second half 2027
35%
entertainment7 candidates +4 more
R
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Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or
98%
human steps on moon again
98%
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or
97%
entertainment6 candidates +3 more
T
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United Kingdom
20%
Germany
13%
Other
12%
entertainment20 candidates +17 more
T
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Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
98%
Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)
97%
Dva (Overwatch)
48%
entertainment13 candidates +10 more
T
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A book in the main ASOIAF se
49%
A “Dunk and Egg” story or st
21%
A sequel to “Fire & Blood”
9%
entertainment6 candidates +3 more
T
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Michael
99%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
99%
Project Hail Mary
99%
entertainment12 candidates +9 more
U
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Chat GPT 6 releases
99%
GTA VI Release
93%
GOP loses control of the Hou
91%
entertainment2 candidates
U
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Matt Damon (The Odyssey)
31%
Tom Cruise (Digger)
21%
Other
20%
entertainment6 candidates +3 more
H
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2029?
44%
Manifold
44%
entertainmentManifold15 traders
By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt? — <=2025
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainmentManifold26 traders
I
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
66%
Manifold
66%
entertainmentManifold54 traders
S
SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.
3%
Manifold
3%
entertainmentManifold34 traders