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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated.

1,049
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
441,902
Markets
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
143 questions
Consensus 2+
I
In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
78%
Manifold
78%
entertainmentManifold47 traders
W
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
6%
Manifold
6%
entertainmentManifold35 traders
H
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2029?
64%
Manifold
64%
entertainmentManifold15 traders
W
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
8%
Manifold
8%
entertainmentManifold37 traders
I
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
80%
Manifold
80%
entertainmentManifold347 traders
W
Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028?
77%
Manifold
77%
entertainmentManifold12 traders
B
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
85%
Manifold
85%
entertainmentManifold128 traders
H
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?
62%
Manifold
62%
entertainmentManifold44 traders
H
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?
63%
Manifold
63%
entertainmentManifold65 traders
W
Will Minecraft still be the best-selling video game by the end of 2026?
91%
Manifold
91%
entertainmentManifold23 traders
W
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?
37%
Manifold
37%
entertainmentManifold54 traders
T
The Simpsons Movie 2 scores 70%+ on Rotten Tomatoes? Critics score
56%
Manifold
56%
entertainmentManifold14 traders
W
Will GTA 6 become the top selling game of all time?
11%
Manifold
11%
entertainmentManifold68 traders
W
Will Half-Life 3 get released before Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6)?
8%
Manifold
8%
entertainmentManifold35 traders
W
Will Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2027?
78%
Manifold
78%
entertainmentManifold19 traders
W
Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?
91%
Manifold
91%
entertainmentManifold22 traders
H
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?
62%
Manifold
62%
entertainmentManifold55 traders
A
Andor remains available to stream on Disney+ or successor
89%
Manifold
89%
entertainmentManifold13 traders
W
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=8.0 on IMDB by 2030?
55%
Manifold
55%
entertainmentManifold24 traders
W
Will Netflix be defunct by 2030?
8%
Manifold
8%
entertainmentManifold22 traders
←5678→
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