OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated.

1,068
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
177,121
Markets
Data refreshed 3 hr ago
178 questions
Consensus 2+
K
Keir starmer UK PM on day GTA 6 is released?
36%
Manifold
36%
entertainmentManifold16 traders
W
Will GTA 6 cost 79$ or more on launch?
86%
Manifold
86%
entertainmentManifold38 traders
W
Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?
19%
Manifold
19%
entertainmentManifold13 traders
W
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
43%
Manifold
43%
entertainmentManifold96 traders
B
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
17%
Manifold
17%
entertainmentManifold63 traders
By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt? — 2032
4%
Manifold
4%
entertainmentManifold26 traders
W
Will Destiny be included in an officially released pornographic film within the next 4 years?
6%
Manifold
6%
entertainmentManifold25 traders
W
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=8.5 on IMDB by 2030?
36%
Manifold
36%
entertainmentManifold22 traders
G
GTA 6 released before P. Diddy leaves prison?
91%
Manifold
91%
entertainmentManifold18 traders
W
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2030?
65%
Manifold
65%
entertainmentManifold27 traders
W
Will Spotify remain the most popular music streaming platform in the US at the end of 2027?
60%
Manifold
60%
entertainmentManifold17 traders
W
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
12%
Manifold
12%
entertainmentManifold100 traders
W
Will any major Hollywood film released before 2027 be entirely AI-generated?
12%
Manifold
12%
entertainmentManifold27 traders
W
Will Spotify still be a popular music streaming service in 2 years
95%
Manifold
95%
entertainmentManifold11 traders
W
Will GTA 6 win GOTY (Game Awards)?
55%
Manifold
55%
entertainmentManifold19 traders
By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt? — 2029
11%
Manifold
11%
entertainmentManifold26 traders
By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt? — >=2035
14%
Manifold
14%
entertainmentManifold26 traders
W
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?
36%
Manifold
36%
entertainmentManifold53 traders
H
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?
55%
Manifold
55%
entertainmentManifold65 traders
W
Will a Lord of the Rings movie written by Stephen Colbert actually release by the end of 2030?
43%
Manifold
43%
entertainmentManifold12 traders
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