Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
9%
— 0ppManifold
20%
Polymarket
4%
other2 sources$1.0M16pp gap
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
6%
↑ 2ppManifold
2%
Polymarket
19%
politics2 sources$967K17pp gap
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference?
4%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
8%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$955K6pp gap
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
18%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
18%
otherPolymarket$928K
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
22%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
20%
Gemini
25%
sports2 sources$817K5pp gap
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$777K1pp gap
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Gemini
6%
sports2 sources$765K3pp gap
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
41%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
39%
Gemini
43%
sports2 sources$757K4pp gap
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
10%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
10%
otherPolymarket$712K
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
1%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
1%
finance2 sources$701K0pp gap
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
24%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
16%
Manifold
33%
other2 sources$657K17pp gap
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
5%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
5%
otherPolymarket$649K
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
74%
Polymarket
20%
Gemini
97%
sports2 sources$641K77pp gap
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
6%
Polymarket
6%
otherPolymarket$627K
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
3%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
5%
sports2 sources$600K3pp gap
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
94%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
97%
Manifold
96%
Gemini
86%
other3 sources$597K11pp gap
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
13%
↑ 9ppPolymarket
13%
otherPolymarket$589K
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
38%
↓ 0ppManifold
38%
Polymarket
38%
other2 sources$580K1pp gap
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
sports2 sources$568K2pp gap
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
28%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
28%
otherPolymarket$554K