Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
14%
Polymarket
18%
Manifold
10%
politics2 sources$22.6M9pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
27%
↑ 1ppManifold
26%
Polymarket
27%
politics2 sources$21.5M2pp gap
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
politics3 sources$17.4M2pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
18%
↑ 1ppGemini
20%
Manifold
16%
Polymarket
17%
politics3 sources$12.9M4pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
42%
— 0ppManifold
44%
Polymarket
39%
politics2 sources$11.7M5pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21%
— 0ppGemini
23%
Manifold
20%
Polymarket
19%
politics3 sources$10.1M4pp gap
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
29%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
28%
Gemini
31%
Manifold
27%
politics3 sources$9.9M4pp gap
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
73%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
70%
Gemini
76%
Manifold
73%
politics3 sources$9.1M6pp gap
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
politics3 sources$7.8M2pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
— 0ppManifold
2%
Gemini
5%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.9M3pp gap
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$6.8M3pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
— 0ppGemini
5%
Manifold
3%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.8M2pp gap
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6%
Polymarket
7%
Gemini
9%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.9M5pp gap
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Gemini
10%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.4M6pp gap
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.3M3pp gap
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
36%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
35%
politics2 sources$2.9M2pp gap
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
12%
↓ 2ppManifold
10%
Polymarket
14%
politics2 sources$1.4M4pp gap
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
52%
Manifold
51%
Polymarket
52%
politics2 sources$1.3M2pp gap
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
7%
Gemini
6%
politics3 sources$934K3pp gap
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
9%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
7%
Manifold
11%
Gemini
10%
politics3 sources$910K4pp gap