Trump out as President by April 30?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
politicsPolymarket$5.8M
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
3%
politics3 sources$5.7M2pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
6%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$5.7M4pp gap
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44%
↓ 1ppGemini
42%
Manifold
50%
Polymarket
40%
politics3 sources$4.4M10pp gap
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
3%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$4.2M2pp gap
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
44%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
44%
politicsPolymarket$4.1M
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
36%
↑ 1ppGemini
40%
Manifold
30%
Polymarket
38%
politics3 sources$3.9M10pp gap
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6%
— 0ppPolymarket
7%
Gemini
9%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.9M5pp gap
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
2%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$3.8M2pp gap
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
9%
Manifold
7%
Polymarket
10%
other2 sources$3.6M4pp gap
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
12%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
12%
politicsPolymarket$3.4M
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.4M2pp gap
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.3M3pp gap
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
56%
↓ 1ppManifold
38%
Gemini
85%
Polymarket
36%
politics3 sources$3.1M48pp gap
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
30%
↓ 2ppGemini
36%
Polymarket
25%
politics2 sources$2.7M11pp gap
Trump out as President by June 30?
6%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
6%
politicsPolymarket$2.5M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
88%
Manifold
89%
Polymarket
86%
politics2 sources$2.2M3pp gap
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
18%
Polymarket
18%
politicsPolymarket$2.1M
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
80%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
80%
politicsPolymarket$1.6M
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
91%
↓ 1ppManifold
90%
Gemini
93%
Polymarket
90%
politics3 sources$1.5M3pp gap