Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
11%
Polymarket
18%
Manifold
7%
politics2 sources$22.6M12pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
27%
↑ 1ppManifold
27%
Polymarket
27%
politics2 sources$21.5M1pp gap
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
politics3 sources$17.4M2pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
18%
↑ 1ppGemini
20%
Manifold
16%
Polymarket
17%
politics3 sources$12.9M4pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
42%
— 0ppManifold
44%
Polymarket
39%
politics2 sources$11.7M4pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21%
— 0ppGemini
23%
Manifold
21%
Polymarket
19%
politics3 sources$10.1M4pp gap
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
29%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
28%
Gemini
31%
Manifold
27%
politics3 sources$9.9M4pp gap
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
73%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
70%
Gemini
76%
Manifold
73%
politics3 sources$9.1M6pp gap
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
politics3 sources$7.8M2pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
— 0ppManifold
2%
Gemini
5%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.9M3pp gap
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$6.8M3pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
— 0ppGemini
4%
Manifold
3%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.8M2pp gap
Trump out as President by April 30?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
politicsPolymarket$6.4M
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
2%
politics2 sources$6.0M1pp gap
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
42%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
42%
politicsPolymarket$4.1M
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6%
Polymarket
7%
Gemini
9%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.9M5pp gap
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
10%
↓ 4ppPolymarket
10%
politicsPolymarket$3.6M
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.4M2pp gap
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.3M3pp gap
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
34%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
32%
politics2 sources$2.9M4pp gap