Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
13%
Gemini
15%
Manifold
13%
Polymarket
11%
sports3 sources$9.6M4pp gap
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16%
— 0ppPolymarket
15%
Gemini
20%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$9.6M5pp gap
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10%
Polymarket
9%
Gemini
12%
Manifold
10%
sports3 sources$9.4M3pp gap
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3%
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
5%
Manifold
2%
sports3 sources$9.4M3pp gap
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
10%
↓ 2ppGemini
13%
Manifold
5%
Polymarket
16%
other3 sources$9.4M12pp gap
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$9.2M3pp gap
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$9.1M2pp gap
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$8.5M2pp gap
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7%
Polymarket
5%
Gemini
8%
Manifold
7%
sports3 sources$8.3M3pp gap
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
8%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
8%
otherPolymarket$8.0M
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
5%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$7.9M4pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppGemini
7%
Manifold
2%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
3%
politics4 sources$6.9M5pp gap
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$6.8M3pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
3%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.8M2pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
Manifold
2%
Gemini
5%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.8M3pp gap
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
64%
↑ 6ppPolymarket
64%
sportsPolymarket$6.3M
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
11%
— 0ppGemini
13%
Manifold
10%
Polymarket
9%
politics3 sources$5.9M4pp gap
Trump out as President by April 30?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
politicsPolymarket$5.8M
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
6%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$5.7M4pp gap
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
8%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
8%
otherPolymarket$5.3M