Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
otherPolymarket$5.3M
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$5.2M4pp gap
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$5.0M4pp gap
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$4.5M4pp gap
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
42%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
42%
politicsPolymarket$4.1M
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
geopoliticsPolymarket$4.0M
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$3.9M3pp gap
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6%
Polymarket
7%
Gemini
9%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.9M5pp gap
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
10%
↓ 4ppPolymarket
10%
politicsPolymarket$3.6M
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.3M3pp gap
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
otherPolymarket$3.1M
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
4%
sports3 sources$3.0M4pp gap
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
8%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.9M
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
76%
↑ 7ppPolymarket
76%
sportsPolymarket$2.9M
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
80%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
80%
sportsPolymarket$2.9M
Iran leadership change by April 30?
12%
Polymarket
12%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.7M
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
32%
— 0ppPolymarket
30%
Gemini
37%
Manifold
30%
sports3 sources$2.6M7pp gap
Trump out as President by June 30?
6%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
6%
politicsPolymarket$2.5M
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
8%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
8%
cryptoPolymarket$2.4M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
economicsPolymarket$2.4M