I
If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
geopoliticsManifold36 traders
W
Will France extend its nuclear protection to other countries before 2029?
69%
Manifold
69%
geopoliticsManifold17 traders
W
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in August 2026?
55%
Manifold
55%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
W
Will the USA operate a functioning nuclear reactor on the moon at the end of 2028?
6%
Manifold
6%
geopoliticsManifold20 traders
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? — Before 2028-07-01
71%
Manifold
71%
geopoliticsManifold179 traders
W
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
31%
Manifold
31%
geopoliticsManifold89 traders
W
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
13%
Manifold
13%
geopoliticsManifold109 traders
W
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
17%
Manifold
17%
geopoliticsManifold82 traders
I
If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?
46%
Manifold
46%
geopoliticsManifold59 traders
I
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
geopoliticsManifold54 traders
W
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
37%
Manifold
37%
geopoliticsManifold15 traders
W
Will Ukraine still hold Zaporizhzhia city after the war between Ukraine and Russia ends?
80%
Manifold
80%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
W
When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub) — 2027
21%
Manifold
21%
geopoliticsManifold240 traders
W
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
30%
Manifold
30%
geopoliticsManifold993 traders
W
Will Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
14%
Manifold
14%
geopoliticsManifold30 traders
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? — Before 2027-07-01
40%
Manifold
40%
geopoliticsManifold172 traders
W
Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?
12%
Manifold
12%
geopoliticsManifold54 traders
A
Are the pronatalist couple good parents?
48%
Manifold
48%
geopoliticsManifold28 traders
W
Will Greenland and Iceland go to war in 2026?
1%
Manifold
1%
geopoliticsManifold15 traders
W
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
9%
Manifold
9%
geopoliticsManifold19 traders