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Other
35%
Armenia
19%
Russia
15%
geopolitics8 candidates +5 more
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Other
21%
Ukraine
17%
India
14%
geopolitics14 candidates +11 more
Z
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🇮🇱 Israel
22%
🇷🇺 Russia
19%
🇺🇸 United States of America
18%
geopolitics9 candidates +6 more
Z
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Not before 2030
62%
By 2030
59%
By 2029
34%
geopolitics5 candidates +2 more
1
1000 american troops inside Iran by EOY?
11%
Manifold
11%
geopoliticsManifold40 traders
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? — Before 2030-01-01
75%
Manifold
75%
geopoliticsManifold192 traders
W
Will the USA operate a functioning nuclear reactor on the moon at the end of 2026?
3%
Manifold
3%
geopoliticsManifold15 traders
B
Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US citizens be killed by US military members on US soil?
40%
Manifold
40%
geopoliticsManifold16 traders
W
Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?
74%
Manifold
74%
geopoliticsManifold34 traders
I
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
32%
Manifold
32%
geopoliticsManifold20 traders
W
When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub) — 2027
22%
Manifold
22%
geopoliticsManifold240 traders
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? — Before 2027-07-01
21%
Manifold
21%
geopoliticsManifold172 traders
W
Will Kazakhstan join NATO by 2033?
13%
Manifold
13%
geopoliticsManifold140 traders
W
Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
12%
Manifold
12%
geopoliticsManifold21 traders
B
By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
27%
Manifold
27%
geopoliticsManifold31 traders
W
When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub) — 2029
19%
Manifold
19%
geopoliticsManifold240 traders
W
Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
53%
Manifold
53%
geopoliticsManifold16 traders
W
Will USA and China be at war in the following years? (Pick all that apply) — 2026
8%
Manifold
8%
geopoliticsManifold28 traders
W
Will USA and China be at war in the following years? (Pick all that apply) — 2025
1%
Manifold
1%
geopoliticsManifold28 traders
W
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
55%
Manifold
55%
geopoliticsManifold18 traders