S
Soyplpucie
Current regime in power, no
56%
Current regime in power, wit
19%
Different regime in power, n
19%
geopolitics4 candidates +1 more
S
Sq0I5Z9Ods
Coyote vs Acme releases
99%
Lego releases a record break
99%
100th spacex launch of the y
95%
geopolitics2 candidates
St0860Tlqu
2028
55%
2027
17%
Proposal rejected/not introd
16%
geopolitics4 candidates +1 more
Taezx4Gtbjucang0Avoo
Ukraine runs out of soldiers
70%
Western aid shortage / econo
69%
Decisive Russian military vi
52%
geopolitics6 candidates +3 more
T
Tfhjxotr1Repgynl3Hg2
Other
46%
Jul - Dec 2027
26%
Jan - Jun 2027
23%
geopolitics8 candidates +5 more
W
Will Greenland and Iceland go to war in 2026?
1%
Manifold
1%
geopoliticsManifold15 traders
W
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
9%
Manifold
9%
geopoliticsManifold19 traders
W
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
14%
Manifold
14%
geopoliticsManifold17 traders
W
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
13%
Manifold
13%
geopoliticsManifold31 traders
W
Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
W
Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
18%
Manifold
18%
geopoliticsManifold17 traders
I
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
32%
Manifold
32%
geopoliticsManifold20 traders
W
Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035?
34%
Manifold
34%
geopoliticsManifold30 traders
I
If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?
78%
Manifold
78%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
W
Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
60%
Manifold
60%
geopoliticsManifold16 traders
U
Ukraine war ends in 2026?
13%
Manifold
13%
geopoliticsManifold22 traders
W
Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of the war on Ukraine?
22%
Manifold
22%
geopoliticsManifold41 traders
U
US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?
17%
Manifold
17%
geopoliticsManifold21 traders
W
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
18%
Manifold
18%
geopoliticsManifold70 traders
W
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
6%
Manifold
6%
geopoliticsManifold191 traders