Trump out as President by June 30?
6%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
6%
politicsPolymarket$2.5M
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
18%
Polymarket
18%
politicsPolymarket$2.1M
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
80%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
80%
politicsPolymarket$1.6M
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
24%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
24%
politicsPolymarket$1.4M
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
12%
↓ 2ppManifold
10%
Polymarket
14%
politics2 sources$1.4M4pp gap
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
52%
Manifold
51%
Polymarket
52%
politics2 sources$1.3M2pp gap
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
6%
↓ 15ppPolymarket
6%
politicsPolymarket$986K
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
54%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
54%
politicsPolymarket$938K
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
7%
Gemini
6%
politics3 sources$934K3pp gap
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
politicsPolymarket$917K
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
9%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
7%
Manifold
11%
Gemini
10%
politics3 sources$910K4pp gap
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
9%
↑ 1ppGemini
9%
Polymarket
10%
Predictit
7%
politics3 sources$772K3pp gap
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
21%
Polymarket
20%
Gemini
23%
Manifold
20%
politics3 sources$698K3pp gap
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
25%
↓ 6ppPolymarket
30%
Manifold
21%
politics2 sources$654K10pp gap
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
4%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
4%
politicsPolymarket$636K
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
3%
↑ 1ppManifold
1%
Gemini
6%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$617K5pp gap
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
40%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
40%
Manifold
39%
Gemini
42%
politics3 sources$609K3pp gap
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
Manifold
2%
politics3 sources$567K3pp gap
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
56%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
56%
politicsPolymarket$517K
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
14%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
14%
politicsPolymarket$506K