By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 20
88%
Manifold
88%
scienceManifold95 traders
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 13
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold95 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-07-01
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold75 traders
W
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
36%
Manifold
36%
scienceManifold71 traders
W
will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold61 traders
W
Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?
19%
Manifold
19%
scienceManifold50 traders
W
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
48%
Manifold
48%
scienceManifold45 traders
W
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?
31%
Manifold
31%
scienceManifold45 traders
W
When will SpaceX IPO? — By 2026-10-01
82%
Manifold
82%
scienceManifold41 traders
W
When will SpaceX IPO? — By 2026-06-15
38%
Manifold
38%
scienceManifold41 traders
S
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
60%
Manifold
60%
scienceManifold39 traders
W
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?
45%
Manifold
45%
scienceManifold36 traders
W
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
3%
Manifold
3%
scienceManifold35 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2030
13%
Manifold
13%
scienceManifold33 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2031
10%
Manifold
10%
scienceManifold33 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2027
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?
16%
Manifold
16%
scienceManifold31 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2026/10/01
13%
Manifold
13%
scienceManifold29 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2027/01/01
23%
Manifold
23%
scienceManifold29 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2027/04/01
41%
Manifold
41%
scienceManifold29 traders