W8G9Sr7Btoxxkwsopqd9
Extraction of at least 100 k
91%
At least 1,000 kg mined (any
87%
At least 10 kg mined with me
80%
science9 candidates +6 more
Wunhkc20S6U0Yg2Pqh78
2026
76%
2027 or later
22%
2025
1%
science4 candidates +1 more
X
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Fusion energy will be achiev
39%
If achieved, it will be the
9%
If achieved, it will cost <2
6%
science3 candidates
Y
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At least 1,000 cases are det
81%
At least 5,000 cases are det
50%
A human-to-human transmissio
20%
science15 candidates +12 more
Y
Yodlseon0R
Anthropic or Meta release a
95%
noam chomsky alive until end
92%
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
78%
science2 candidates
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It will allow to predict in
77%
It will be solved by AI
68%
methods developed to solve t
60%
science2 candidates
Z
Z9Pcqn6Qt0
Will Isaias reach Category 3
64%
Will Josephine reach Categor
23%
Will Kyle reach Category 1 w
8%
science63 candidates +60 more
Zgn5Yhigll
AGI
66%
10,000 Starship launches
59%
Human Mars landing
26%
science3 candidates
Z
Zgu5Nzzncd
Optimus
92%
Cybercab
92%
unsupervised
92%
science2 candidates
0
02Nlssrnta
1
68%
2
18%
3
2%
science14 candidates +11 more
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Other
65%
2028
15%
2027
10%
science6 candidates +3 more
0
0Aqtgqd88U
Florida
63%
Alabama
51%
Mississippi
17%
science18 candidates +15 more
0
0Zlcqo05Lq
Josephine
38%
Kyle
10%
Leah
5%
science12 candidates +9 more
2
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SpaceX
95%
Starlink (independent of Spa
2%
Other
1%
science2 candidates
H
Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?
5%
Manifold
5%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will Steve Kirsch win their bet with Rootclaim over vaccine deaths?
9%
Manifold
9%
scienceManifold24 traders
W
Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
scienceManifold17 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2028-07-01
77%
Manifold
77%
scienceManifold32 traders
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? — By Dec 31, 2025
70%
Manifold
70%
scienceManifold27 traders
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? — By Dec 31, 2028
97%
Manifold
97%
scienceManifold27 traders