W
Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
40%
Manifold
40%
scienceManifold97 traders
W
Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?
48%
Manifold
48%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before 2043?
50%
Manifold
50%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before 2030?
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold36 traders
N
NASA confirms aliens before 2027?
2%
Manifold
2%
scienceManifold135 traders
W
Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?
22%
Manifold
22%
scienceManifold11 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
9%
Manifold
9%
scienceManifold25 traders
W
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold118 traders
W
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months? — 80-89%
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before 2041?
42%
Manifold
42%
scienceManifold30 traders
W
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months? — 30-39%
12%
Manifold
12%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
will this tweet hold up: Humans will fly to Mars in 50 months [27 Dec, 2028]
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold19 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2028-10-01
77%
Manifold
77%
scienceManifold32 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2026-10-01
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold30 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2027-01-01
11%
Manifold
11%
scienceManifold30 traders
W
Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
scienceManifold17 traders
W
Will SpaceX land on the *MOON* by Dec 31st 2027?
3%
Manifold
3%
scienceManifold11 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2028-07-01
77%
Manifold
77%
scienceManifold32 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2027-07-01
89%
Manifold
89%
scienceManifold75 traders
W
Will SpaceX combine with Tesla in 2026?
9%
Manifold
9%
scienceManifold11 traders