When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2027-04-01
79%
Manifold
79%
scienceManifold75 traders
W
When will SpaceX IPO? — By 2040-01-01
92%
Manifold
92%
scienceManifold41 traders
W
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2040?
18%
Manifold
18%
scienceManifold32 traders
W
Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
43%
Manifold
43%
scienceManifold21 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2028/01/01
85%
Manifold
85%
scienceManifold29 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2029/01/01
91%
Manifold
91%
scienceManifold29 traders
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? — By Dec 31, 2029
99%
Manifold
99%
scienceManifold27 traders
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? — By Dec 31, 2030
99%
Manifold
99%
scienceManifold27 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-05-01
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold75 traders
W
Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
78%
Manifold
78%
scienceManifold73 traders
W
Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?
16%
Manifold
16%
scienceManifold31 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2026-07-01
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold30 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2026-10-01
20%
Manifold
20%
scienceManifold30 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2027-01-01
44%
Manifold
44%
scienceManifold30 traders
W
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030?
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold29 traders
W
Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
92%
Manifold
92%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before we discover a room temperature superconductor like LK-99?
70%
Manifold
70%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will the first human landing on Mars take place before the next human landing on the Moon?
5%
Manifold
5%
scienceManifold24 traders
W
Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars before he passes away?
15%
Manifold
15%
scienceManifold58 traders
W
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
37%
Manifold
37%
scienceManifold33 traders