W
Will the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
80%
Manifold
80%
scienceManifold18 traders
W
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
38%
Manifold
38%
scienceManifold15 traders
W
Will a pandemic wipe out humanity by 2100?
5%
Manifold
5%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?
42%
Manifold
42%
scienceManifold30 traders
W
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
71%
Manifold
71%
scienceManifold45 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2027-10-01
47%
Manifold
47%
scienceManifold32 traders
W
Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2027?
20%
Manifold
20%
scienceManifold13 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2028-10-01
77%
Manifold
77%
scienceManifold32 traders
W
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
37%
Manifold
37%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2099?
36%
Manifold
36%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2039?
38%
Manifold
38%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months? — 30-39%
12%
Manifold
12%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months? — 80-89%
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?
22%
Manifold
22%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will SpaceX land a human on the Moon before they land a human on Mars?
91%
Manifold
91%
scienceManifold52 traders
W
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
15%
Manifold
15%
scienceManifold46 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before 2030?
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold36 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-10-01
5%
Manifold
5%
scienceManifold75 traders
P
Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold23 traders