W
Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050
54%
Manifold
54%
scienceManifold20 traders
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 13
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold95 traders
H
Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?
7%
Manifold
7%
scienceManifold12 traders
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 16
45%
Manifold
45%
scienceManifold98 traders
S
SpaceX has an IPO before 2029
99%
Manifold
99%
scienceManifold15 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2028/01/01
85%
Manifold
85%
scienceManifold29 traders
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? — By Dec 31, 2030
99%
Manifold
99%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)
83%
Manifold
83%
scienceManifold80 traders
I
Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?
56%
Manifold
56%
scienceManifold170 traders
W
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months? — 60-69%
25%
Manifold
25%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months? — 50-59%
14%
Manifold
14%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months? — 60-69%
27%
Manifold
27%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?
40%
Manifold
40%
scienceManifold36 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2029
16%
Manifold
16%
scienceManifold33 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2026-10-01
15%
Manifold
15%
scienceManifold30 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2027-01-01
36%
Manifold
36%
scienceManifold30 traders
S
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
13%
Manifold
13%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?
25%
Manifold
25%
scienceManifold20 traders
W
When will SpaceX IPO? — By 2040-01-01
99%
Manifold
99%
scienceManifold41 traders
W
Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2026?
3%
Manifold
3%
scienceManifold17 traders