When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? — By Dec 31, 2027
96%
Manifold
96%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will there be an earthquake causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold22 traders
W
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
62%
Manifold
62%
scienceManifold46 traders
W
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold21 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before 2035?
20%
Manifold
20%
scienceManifold39 traders
S
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
59%
Manifold
59%
scienceManifold39 traders
🚨
🚨UPDATE MARCH 2026🚨 Will a decipherment of the Voynich Manuscript be scientifically recognized by end of Dec 31, 2026
3%
Manifold
3%
scienceManifold51 traders
W
Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?
18%
Manifold
18%
scienceManifold121 traders
W
Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?
31%
Manifold
31%
scienceManifold73 traders
W
Will the Russian cancer vaccine work?
17%
Manifold
17%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will the first person to walk on Mars be a woman?
38%
Manifold
38%
scienceManifold23 traders
D
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
26%
Manifold
26%
scienceManifold2173 traders
W
Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?
16%
Manifold
16%
scienceManifold50 traders
W
Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?
25%
Manifold
25%
scienceManifold31 traders
N
NASA confirms aliens before 2027?
2%
Manifold
2%
scienceManifold135 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold25 traders
W
Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
scienceManifold12 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2028-01-01
60%
Manifold
60%
scienceManifold32 traders
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? — By Dec 31, 2030
98%
Manifold
98%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will NASA establish a standard time zone or timekeeping method for the moon by the end of 2026
64%
Manifold
64%
scienceManifold24 traders