When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2027-10-01
92%
Manifold
92%
scienceManifold75 traders
W
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
81%
Manifold
81%
scienceManifold47 traders
W
Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?
36%
Manifold
36%
scienceManifold47 traders
D
Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
28%
Manifold
28%
scienceManifold16 traders
W
Will there be evidence of Tadej Pogacar using carbon monoxide for doping purposes by 2026?
5%
Manifold
5%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will SpaceX join the S&P 500?
91%
Manifold
91%
scienceManifold22 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-12-01
38%
Manifold
38%
scienceManifold84 traders
I
In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?
60%
Manifold
60%
scienceManifold39 traders
W
Will a dog walk on Mars before the end of 2080?
61%
Manifold
61%
scienceManifold15 traders
W
Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?
64%
Manifold
64%
scienceManifold66 traders
W
Will NASA bring back Mars samples to Earth before China?
45%
Manifold
45%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?
15%
Manifold
15%
scienceManifold276 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before 2035?
20%
Manifold
20%
scienceManifold39 traders
S
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
59%
Manifold
59%
scienceManifold39 traders
W
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
91%
Manifold
91%
scienceManifold15 traders
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage? — Before 2027-01-01
11%
Manifold
11%
scienceManifold30 traders
W
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
63%
Manifold
63%
scienceManifold11 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2028-01-01
95%
Manifold
95%
scienceManifold78 traders
W
Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?
25%
Manifold
25%
scienceManifold31 traders
W
Will there be a peer-reviewed, widely accepted scientific explanation of how consciousness emerges by 31/Dec/2033?
26%
Manifold
26%
scienceManifold37 traders