W
Will the first human landing on Mars take place before the next human landing on the Moon?
5%
Manifold
5%
scienceManifold24 traders
W
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold21 traders
W
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
98%
Manifold
98%
scienceManifold24 traders
🚨
🚨UPDATE MARCH 2026🚨 Will a decipherment of the Voynich Manuscript be scientifically recognized by end of Dec 31, 2026
3%
Manifold
3%
scienceManifold51 traders
W
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
37%
Manifold
37%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
71%
Manifold
71%
scienceManifold175 traders
W
Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?
17%
Manifold
17%
scienceManifold276 traders
W
Will NASA announce that there is life on K2-18b with a high degree probability before January 1st, 2027?
2%
Manifold
2%
scienceManifold15 traders
W
Will China claim to have discovered life on Mars before 2035?
20%
Manifold
20%
scienceManifold15 traders
W
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
27%
Manifold
27%
scienceManifold32 traders
W
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
80%
Manifold
80%
scienceManifold47 traders
W
Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀
11%
Manifold
11%
scienceManifold43 traders
W
Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold136 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-10-01
45%
Manifold
45%
scienceManifold75 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2027-01-01
65%
Manifold
65%
scienceManifold75 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2029
21%
Manifold
21%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will NASA assign asteroid YR4 an impact probability of ≥4.0% before June 2029?
2%
Manifold
2%
scienceManifold51 traders
I
Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?
66%
Manifold
66%
scienceManifold170 traders
W
Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars AND get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?
10%
Manifold
10%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?
55%
Manifold
55%
scienceManifold36 traders