Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
8%
↓ 1ppManifold
8%
Polymarket
8%
politics2 sources$31.4M0pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
26%
— 0ppManifold
26%
Polymarket
27%
politics2 sources$21.4M1pp gap
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
politics3 sources$17.4M2pp gap
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
3%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
3%
politics4 sources$14.8M2pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
17%
— 0ppGemini
20%
Manifold
16%
Polymarket
17%
politics3 sources$12.8M4pp gap
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4%
Manifold
3%
Gemini
5%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$12.1M2pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
41%
— 0ppManifold
44%
Polymarket
39%
politics2 sources$11.6M5pp gap
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6%
— 0ppGemini
7%
Manifold
5%
Polymarket
6%
politics3 sources$10.7M2pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21%
Gemini
23%
Manifold
20%
Polymarket
19%
politics3 sources$10.0M4pp gap
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
29%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
30%
Gemini
31%
Manifold
27%
politics3 sources$9.1M4pp gap
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
73%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
70%
Gemini
76%
Manifold
73%
politics3 sources$8.5M6pp gap
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5%
— 0ppManifold
4%
Polymarket
5%
Predictit
6%
politics3 sources$7.9M2pp gap
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
politics3 sources$7.8M2pp gap
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
22%
— 0ppManifold
24%
Polymarket
21%
politics2 sources$7.5M2pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppGemini
7%
Manifold
2%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
3%
politics4 sources$6.9M5pp gap
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$6.8M3pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
3%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.8M2pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
Manifold
2%
Gemini
5%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.8M3pp gap
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
3%
Gemini
4%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$6.2M2pp gap
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
11%
— 0ppGemini
13%
Manifold
10%
Polymarket
9%
politics3 sources$5.9M4pp gap