Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
60%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
60%
politicsPolymarket$484K
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
22%
Polymarket
24%
Manifold
17%
Gemini
26%
politics3 sources$475K9pp gap
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
94%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
94%
politicsPolymarket$459K
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
6%
Polymarket
6%
politicsPolymarket$432K
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
64%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
72%
Manifold
55%
other2 sources$421K17pp gap
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
8%
↑ 5ppPolymarket
8%
politicsPolymarket$407K
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
8%
Polymarket
8%
politicsPolymarket$372K
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?
97%
— 0ppPolymarket
97%
politicsPolymarket$367K
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
10%
Polymarket
8%
Manifold
12%
Gemini
11%
politics3 sources$355K4pp gap
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
10%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
10%
politicsPolymarket$349K
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
51%
Polymarket
51%
politicsPolymarket$343K
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
2%
Polymarket
2%
politicsPolymarket$308K
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
4%
↓ 4ppPolymarket
4%
politicsPolymarket$307K
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
7%
Polymarket
6%
Gemini
9%
Manifold
6%
politics3 sources$303K3pp gap
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
59%
↓ 22ppPolymarket
59%
politicsPolymarket$292K
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
4%
Polymarket
4%
politicsPolymarket$274K
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
politicsPolymarket$252K
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
24%
↓ 8ppPolymarket
24%
politicsPolymarket$246K
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
6%
Polymarket
6%
politicsPolymarket$241K
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
78%
Polymarket
78%
politicsPolymarket$240K