Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
5%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
13%
geopolitics2 sources$42.9M11pp gap
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9%
— 0ppManifold
9%
Polymarket
9%
other2 sources$19.6M1pp gap
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
25%
Polymarket
22%
Manifold
29%
geopolitics2 sources$14.0M7pp gap
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
7%
Polymarket
6%
Manifold
10%
geopolitics2 sources$13.5M4pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
28%
↑ 1ppManifold
26%
Polymarket
30%
geopolitics2 sources$13.2M4pp gap
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
13%
↓ 3ppGemini
13%
Manifold
11%
Polymarket
16%
other3 sources$9.4M5pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
39%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
28%
Manifold
51%
geopolitics2 sources$7.3M23pp gap
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
18%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
16%
Manifold
20%
geopolitics2 sources$6.5M4pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
4%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
5%
Manifold
3%
geopolitics2 sources$5.2M2pp gap
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
7%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Gemini
8%
Manifold
10%
geopolitics3 sources$1.5M6pp gap
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
55%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
58%
Manifold
52%
geopolitics2 sources$1.4M6pp gap
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$1.4M0pp gap
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
11%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
43%
geopolitics2 sources$1.2M41pp gap
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
7%
geopolitics2 sources$1.1M3pp gap
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
28%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
44%
Manifold
15%
geopolitics2 sources$1.1M29pp gap
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
10%
↑ 2ppManifold
11%
Polymarket
10%
other2 sources$1.0M1pp gap
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
39%
Polymarket
34%
Manifold
43%
geopolitics2 sources$882K9pp gap
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
17%
Polymarket
16%
Manifold
19%
geopolitics2 sources$867K4pp gap
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$777K1pp gap
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
geopolitics2 sources$681K0pp gap