Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
55%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
58%
Manifold
52%
geopolitics2 sources$1.4M6pp gap
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$1.4M0pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
20%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
20%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.3M
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
8%
Polymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.3M
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
11%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
43%
geopolitics2 sources$1.2M41pp gap
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
7%
geopolitics2 sources$1.1M3pp gap
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
42%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
42%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.1M
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
28%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
44%
Manifold
15%
geopolitics2 sources$1.1M29pp gap
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
4%
Polymarket
4%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.0M
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
10%
↑ 2ppManifold
11%
Polymarket
10%
other2 sources$1.0M1pp gap
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
geopoliticsPolymarket$929K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
6%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
6%
geopoliticsPolymarket$905K
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
39%
Polymarket
34%
Manifold
43%
geopolitics2 sources$882K9pp gap
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
17%
Polymarket
16%
Manifold
19%
geopolitics2 sources$867K4pp gap
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
96%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
96%
geopoliticsPolymarket$781K
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$777K1pp gap
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
21%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
21%
geopoliticsPolymarket$737K
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
13%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
13%
geopoliticsPolymarket$730K
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
geopolitics2 sources$681K0pp gap
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
geopoliticsPolymarket$661K