Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
20%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
20%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.3M
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
8%
Polymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.3M
Where Will The Next US Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen
next diplomatic US-Iran meet
97%
no qualifying diplomatic US-
2%
geopolitics8 candidates +6 more$1.2M+$235K/24h
Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz By April
United States send warships
17%
France send warships through
9%
United Kingdom send warships
8%
geopolitics11 candidates +8 more$1.2M+$76K/24h
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
11%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
43%
geopolitics2 sources$1.2M41pp gap
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
42%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
42%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.1M
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
28%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
44%
Manifold
15%
geopolitics2 sources$1.1M29pp gap
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
4%
Polymarket
4%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.0M
Which Cities Will Russia Enter By June
Russia enter Dopropillia by
29%
Russia enter Druzkhivka by J
14%
Russia enter Sloviansk by Ju
14%
geopolitics8 candidates +5 more$933K+$2K/24h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
geopoliticsPolymarket$929K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
6%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
6%
geopoliticsPolymarket$905K
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
39%
Polymarket
34%
Manifold
43%
geopolitics2 sources$882K9pp gap
Israel Strike On Yemen By
Israel strike on Yemen by Ju
36%
Israel strike on Yemen by Ma
27%
Israel strike on Yemen by Ap
24%
geopolitics4 candidates +1 more$789K+$19K/24h
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
96%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
96%
geopoliticsPolymarket$781K
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
21%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
21%
geopoliticsPolymarket$737K
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
13%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
13%
geopoliticsPolymarket$730K
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
geopoliticsPolymarket$661K
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
6%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
6%
geopoliticsPolymarket$654K
How Many Different Countries Will The US Strike In 2026
US strike 7 countries in 202
34%
US strike 8 countries in 202
27%
US strike 9 countries in 202
13%
geopolitics10 candidates +7 more$634K+$20K/24h
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
6%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
6%
geopoliticsPolymarket$627K